Why 2009 May Be THE Year for Stocks!

I found this article on CNBC.com just now

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28352084

and it makes me increasingly bullish on common stocks for the coming year. Why? The headline screams that 2009 may not be a good year for stocks. That, in its essence is why I like stocks. As I have mentioned, as long as the fundamentals are okay for a particular issue, I WANT everybody to be out of a stock when I purchase. When everybody is bullish, then by definition, more people will be believing in stocks, therefore, will be driving the price up.

If all of the pros are bearish, then by definition, then they will be out of stocks. That is precisely what I want.

Don't get me wrong, I think that 2009 will be another bad year for a lot of issues - but not all. And the ones that come back strong, the ones that have already been beaten up but will survive, should come back.

I love the financials like BAC, XLF, WFC, C - they are all down at least 40% on the year. They pay good dividends and are survivor names. With BAC selling at $12 and change at one point today, I love that stock.

Again, I am not a professional, do not follow me. Do your diligence, but my main point is that when EVERYBODY was saying that we were not in a recession, and history (and market leaders now) agree that we clearly were, did that make it so? I think not. At the same time, now that the safe bet is to jump on the "no stocks will ever be good again" bandwagon - the same people are now running this headline. And I am hopeful that history will show this to be, once again, just a clear case of groupthink and lack of willingness to go against popular sentiment.

Months ago, after a particularly brutal day, the Dow down 900 points - the market pundits were all sitting around looking at each other saying "you throw in the towel yet?" and calling capitulation - that is nowhere near. Two more months and two more months of brutal volatility - and now everybody is done asking. They are talking about survival, and what to invest in now that there is no chance of making money in stocks. Now that my friends, that MAY be capitulation.

I generally look at capitulation as when the only buyers are the institutional bargain hunters. The value guys that got thrown out of their jobs when the momentum guys took over. Now that the momentum guys are looking for jobs, the value players are sifting through the rubble looking for bargains.

That, combined with the all negative headlines makes me hopeful that the end is near. And not the end of stocks and finances as we know it, but the end of the pain that has been slowly pulling us apart for the past three quarters or so.

I just have to shake my head and remember back to Q407 when the "industry brains" were calmly reassuring - the "subprime losses are well contained and the US economy is in great shape, and we remain extremely bullish over the next three quarters"....

Now that they are saying that it's a bloodbath here on out, I have to smile and hope that my BAC, XLF, etc. positions come back strong!

Good luck all - and remember, don't make investment decisions based on my rantings. Do your diligence, seek professional opinions, and use your own judgement. Good luck.

Mr. Boo.