Citigroup - Symbol C recently cut the dividend to their common shares by 76% (if I am remembering correctly) and the stock got hammered. This was nothing earth shattering or amazing, the entire financial sector was selling off. There were rumors of nationalization and worse.
Now that the dust is settling, something pretty amazing is starting to come out. Some of this is clearly speculation, but here is what it looks like to me.
When they cut the dividend by 76% they also gave the holders of the common (not sure which percentage) the option to convert into preferred shares with a set price. What happened? It gave the holders of the common, now preferred owners with a minimum conversion level, the option to short the stock and have near unlimited upside.
Of course, these new shorts creamed ths stock, and this further reinforced the fervor of the naked shorts who piled on more with this newfound volume giving them the wind at their backs.
This is my take on the situation. Not sure, and surely will learn more about this as time passes on.
Good luck all.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Cautiously Optimistic
The last two weeks have been a bit encouraging. Looks like the banks will survive, we have had some better than expected numbers in both housing (a shock) and consumer sentiment (downright amazing) and the markets appear to be coming back a bit closer to normal.
Ben Bernanke (whom I happen to respect a lot) made a comment that is refreshing. Rather than the same old lines of "everything is great' or "everything is doomed" he took a moderate approach. He went on to say that while things are far from where they should be, it looks like the credit markets are starting to come around a bit, and as we all know, the credit markets are what has powered this country (and now the world) since WWII.
Bernanke is in a tough spot. The laissez faire approach that led to the largest housing bubble, and an outright meltdown of the financial markets has happened on his watch. Did he create it? No. Did he exascerbate it? Maybe. But he is doing a few things right in my opinion. With some luck, we will make it out of this mess by year's end.
For the recovery, I still love the XLF to take part in the upside, while hedging the risk by being in an index.
Good luck all
Ben Bernanke (whom I happen to respect a lot) made a comment that is refreshing. Rather than the same old lines of "everything is great' or "everything is doomed" he took a moderate approach. He went on to say that while things are far from where they should be, it looks like the credit markets are starting to come around a bit, and as we all know, the credit markets are what has powered this country (and now the world) since WWII.
Bernanke is in a tough spot. The laissez faire approach that led to the largest housing bubble, and an outright meltdown of the financial markets has happened on his watch. Did he create it? No. Did he exascerbate it? Maybe. But he is doing a few things right in my opinion. With some luck, we will make it out of this mess by year's end.
For the recovery, I still love the XLF to take part in the upside, while hedging the risk by being in an index.
Good luck all
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