Why The Downturn is a Good Thing....

The US Economy is in the grips of a pretty major recession. Very few would argue that, and the numbers suggest that it could be another year until we recover. Plastered all over the news we hear the doom and gloom of the day.

Jobless rates are soaring. The US currency is devalued to levels not seen in decades, governments both local and national are running out of cash and issuing IOU's, the stock market is in the dumpster and even worse, some high profile scandals have created a feeling of distrust.

While the jobless situation and other factors are very real, there is one thing behind it. Fear.

Since the market rebounded sharply after the tragic attacks of 9/11 the average American on the street felt pretty invincible. Home prices kept rising, the economy kept tacking on gains and the overall feeling of prosperity kept humming along. Funny thing is, it is this feeling of invincibility is what got us into this mess.

We all know the guy. He is a renter, gets into a home on a creatively financed deal and starts to develop equity. Rather than be smart and refinance into the fixed while he had tons of equity, what did he do? He bought motorhomes, boats, took luxurious vacations and paid off credit card debt, all with the help of his newfound money tree in the back yard. His home equity.

His financial situation did not really change, but he had a whole lot of money to buy toys. It was this feeling of the gravy train never ending that powered the US to some pretty incredible gains. However, the bubble has burst, our example has lost his home and his toys and is now looking to Uncle Sam to bail him out.

The media for the longest time turned a blind eye to this situation. They assured that the US economy's predicament was limited to the "subprime" debt. Then, when the pain was too large to ignore, they saw that the US was in a recession. Now, it is so much more. The bad news of the day is now amplified to the point of paranoia. Now, the US is in the complete inverse situation. People with good financial situations are now terrified to spend a penny and it is killing us.

Now, when we NEED the spending, even those with cash are not spending. Now, the pendulum has gone too far. I see the downturn as being good for us for a few reasons.

1.) A return to frugality - this will help people learn to save and actually demand something for their money. This will lead to better product quality and the mentality of taking care of things. The US, hopefully, will become more efficient.

2.) Job Loyalty - in great economic times, people job hop like crazy. Now, hopefully, people will be happy to have thier job and will actually stay and perform better (for the fear of being cut is always there). This will help our workforce be more efficient and more loyalty. Just the reduction of turnover will help alleviate the recruitment and training costs that have risen so over the past decade.

3.) Opportunity to pick up undervalued assets - I make my major purchases in down economies when possible. Houses, cars, toys, all can be had for pennies on the dollar to those who were wise enough to be cash rich when the downturn hit.

4.) Innovation - smart employees are coming up with ways to make extra cash. This is second jobs consulting, starting small side businesses, etc.

5.) Savings - When times are good, "savers" are scoffed at. "Why not?" is the common question asked of them when they hesitate on a purchase. "You work hard, you deserve it" is another. Hopefully, this revelation that the US economy, like so many others, is prone to hard times, maybe people will rethink their savings strategy. Those who saved and planned while times were great are cash rich now and are much better off than the people who leveraged too much and got hammered. Hopefully, a new saving mentality can come of this.

In general, I see that the economy is bad. The dollar will undoubtedly fall apart as the Fed runs the printing presses of cash. I get that. But, when looked at with a fresh perspective, this can be a good thing.

I do things a bit better now. Less lunches out at expensive places, less money squandered on things not needed and a much better record of saving and investing. With some luck, we will get through this a better, wiser and more disciplined society.

Good luck,

mrboo

.... I am back

anyhow, to finish on my non professional, don't follow me, don't make investments off of my ramblings, etc....

the street has consistently shaken people out and bought up on the cheap, only to turn the media tides the other way and turn it into a profitable holding. On the other side, when the markets are clearly topping out, it is the professionals who are b.s.'ing the individual into believing that the love affair will continue forever.

What is a small timer like myself to do?

I like to look at the stock as a business and when the market is throwing me a deal (based on my own valuations) get in as an "investor" - a highly overused term these days. Anyhow, and actually hold the stock until my valuations tell me that it is overvalued. Then I sell and wait for the next calamity.

One particular instance of this recently was FEED a Chinese hog farm. They are feeding the ever expanding Chinese population and making good money for it. For a few reasons, their stock has taken a beating, dropping from greater than $20 PPS to less than $2. At $1.50 I started buying.

Over the past couple of weeks I have established a rather large position in the stock which is now paying off handsomely. How did this happen? I looked at the numbers, bought when everybody was selling and keep reminding myself that I am an owner in a business, not holding a lottery ticket that goes up or down daily.

My message - do your own research and do not listen to the Wall Street media machine. They want your shares cheap.

Good Luck,

Mr. Boo.

Random Thoughts...

Before I get started on this, I just want you to know. I am not a professional, I write this blog so I can disseminate my ideas to my friends and colleagues who are always asking my thoughts on the market. That said, NEVER base any investment on my ramblings. It is just one guy who loves the market and who has studied it for a while.

I like to think that I use the common sense investing approach. Invest in the things I understand, stay away from the stuff I don't and wait for good prices to buy and sell at prices that seem a bit inflated.

One thing that has really stricken me lately though is how out of whack this whole market has been. We have seen some pretty major dislocation over the past six month and one has to wonder, is this beyond even the control of Wall Street?

When I say "beyond the control" I mean it. Since soon after its inception, the power players, or Robber Barons have controlled, almost completely, the markets. With a few exceptions like the panic of 1907, the crash of 1929, and now the crash of 2008, the big players and big investment houses have really manipulated the small investor and shaken them out of some serious profits.

Downgrades, corrupt market makers, etc. have scared the small investor out at times they should have actually been buying and hyping the market up, soothing that "this bull market is different this time, it's going to the moon" when the street insiders were actually selling.

I need to go off to a meeting now but  I will be back....